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Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty

Julwan Hendry Purba, JHP and D.T. Sony Tjahyani, DTST and Andy Sofrani Ekariansyah, ASE and Hendro Tjahjono, HT (2015) Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty. Fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainty, 85. pp. 1189-1199. ISSN Volume 85, November 2015, Pages 1189-1199

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Abstract

ASTRACK A number of fuzzy fault tree analysis approaches, which integrate fuzzy concepts into the quantitative phase of conventional fault tree analysis, have been proposed to study reliabilities of engineering sys- tems. Those new approaches apply expert judgments to overcome the limitation of the conventional fault tree analysis when basic events do not have probability distributions. Since expert judgments might come with epistemic uncertainty, it is important to quantify the overall uncertainties of the fuzzy fault tree analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is commonly used to quantify the overall uncertainties of conven- tional fault tree analysis. However, since Monte Carlo simulation is based on probability distribution, this technique is not appropriate for fuzzy fault tree analysis, which is based on fuzzy probabilities. The objec- tive of this study is to develop a fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis to overcome the limitation of fuzzy fault tree analysis. To demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach, a case study is per- formed and its results are then compared to the results analyzed by a conventional fault tree analysis. The results confirm that the proposed fuzzy probability based fault tree analysis is feasible to propagate and quantify epistemic uncertainties in fault tree analysis

Item Type: Article
Subjects: Keselamatan dan Keamanan Nuklir
Divisions: Pusat Teknologi dan Keselamatan Reaktor Nuklir
Depositing User: USER PTKRN BATAN
Date Deposited: 21 Aug 2018 07:46
Last Modified: 21 Aug 2018 07:46
URI: http://repo-nkm.batan.go.id/id/eprint/3754

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